The average cost for Detroit's Big Three automakers to meet the proposed fuel efficiency targets of 31.6 miles per gallon by 2015 has been pegged at $30.6 billion. In contrast, the average cost for the Japanese automakers sits at less than half that amount at "only" $14.85 billion. These numbers come courtesy of a recent study by Global Insight. In a real shocker, General Motors alone is expected to pay out $15 billion alone. Why the disparity? Simple: the Japanese brands already offer more fuel efficient models. With that reasoning, it seems unlikely that the U.S. companies will get much sympathy from the buying public.

Global Insight also predicts that many new technologies which are just beginning to make a dent in sales today will make up a huger percentage of sales by 2015. These new developments include direct injection, turbocharging and diesel engines. Hybrids, the current darling of the fuel efficient crowd, will continue to gain market share, especially as more new models are rolled out which feature the hybrid drivetrain as an option or as standard equipment.

There is a glimmer of hope out there for automakers which are finding it tough to move vehicles in today's troubled climate. Global Insight predicts that there will be a pent-up demand for the replacement of aging models which owners have clung to in the face of high gas prices and a poor U.S. economy sometime around the year 2015.

[Source: Automotive News - sub. req'd]

We all know that the Democratic Representative from the Automakers Michigan, John Dingell, is a foe of state-based regulations over the auto industry. Back in February, he tried to revive an excised portion of the energy bill that would have made federal CO₂ limits take precedence over state rules. In an editorial in Automotive News (subs req'd), Edward Lapham writes that it's Dingell who will be of very few lawmakers who "get" why America needs a national fuel economy law instead of allowing states to set their own rules. The three major presidential candidates, Lapham writes, don't get it and neither do many other in Congress. Lapham even equates states setting their own fuel economy rules "would be akin to letting them print their own money." For Lapham and Dingell, the protracted wait between federal increases in the CAFE standard must have looked pretty good. If all the power sits in Washington, then you can slow laws down there and be all set. I mean, if the feds retain control, then Dave McCurdy might be able to stay home more.

[Source: Edward Lapham / Automotive News (subs req'd)]

At the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) meeting last weekend, GM CEO Rick Wagoner asked car dealers to lobby their state and local governments to not regulate tailpipe emissions. The NADA is going to take the legislative battle over CAFE fuel requirements seriously, something that NADA chairwoman Annette Sykora said at the same conference.

Sykora said that flexibility in the CAFE regulations are going to be a priority for her organization and that - stop us if you've heard this before - CAFE can't restrict the consumer's freedom of choice. According to Automotive News, Sykora said, "The consumer will decide what works and what doesn't. It's that simple. You can't wave a government wand and make consumers buy a particular type of vehicle. This is not Europe."

Yawn.

While Sykora's statement that "We don't want the jalopy effect, where car owners keep their older, less fuel-efficient vehicles much longer" is a valid one, using the Europe boogeyman is tired and not very helpful. That sort of talk might work in Texas, where Sykora is a Ford dealer, but it doesn't have a place in an educated debate about making cars cleaner. You know, I could swear it was just last year that the previous NADA chair said that fuel-efficient vehicles are the way to built market share. Anyway, you can read Sykora's speech here (PDF).

[Source: David Sedgwick / Automotive News]

Automotive News (subs req'd) has published a very interesting article on how the new CAFE rules might bring some surprises for American car buyers.

First and foremost, there's the "work truck" classification, which exempts those types of vehicles from these tougher standards. According to John DeCicco, from Environmental Defense, the first CAFE standards from 20 years ago allowed vehicles outside the car category - such as SUVs, light trucks and minivans - to survive with terrible fuel economy. Now the story could be repeated with larger vehicles that technically fit the definition of "work truck" but probably aren't used for work (the article uses the 2008 Ford F-250 Super Duty with King Ranch trim as an example) to again skate by legislation.

Then there's the issue of weight reduction, which has actually been a way to go for several car manufacturers (we even have a full category for it) to increase mileage ratings. But could this lead to cars that are less safe? The truth is that fuel economy targets will vary according to a vehicle's attributes - most likely size, measured by "footprint" or the area bounded by the four wheels, which is a system that ensures that automakers won't sell a bunch of smaller cars together with larger less efficient vehicles. However, this could also lead to cars that would weigh less than similar counterparts from the late '90s or early 2000s, which are, according to DeCicco, simply overweight.

The "footprint" of the car could also lead automakers to push wheels against the corners of the cars, something that might affect Honda or Nissan, marques that already sell smaller vehicles, says Ed Cohen, chief Washington lobbyist for Honda North America Inc. He also believes that some automakers will simply cope with the cost of fines (or add it to the price of the car), something premium marques have been doing in the past. Jim Kliesch, an engineer in the clean-vehicles program of the Union of Concerned Scientists, says: "It's going to be a fairly simple process," and he forecasts that this will only cost about $1,500 per car.

Related:

• Washington Auto Show videos: Car makers on senators, state regulators and CAFE
• The Chrysler HEMI may soon fade into history, another victim of CAFE and modern realities
• Lutz says new CAFE standards will increase car price by $6k

[Source: Automotive News (sub's required)]

President Bush signed the Energy Bill into law Wednesday and you can watch highlights from the speech in the video above. In the speech, President Bush noted two important parts of the energy bill; the biofuels and CAFE standard, both of which Bush says he asked for last year. Bush appreciates Congress gave him what he wanted for Christmas, but what about everyone else?

According to the NewsHour, there were four big issues in the early version of the energy bill along with the CAFE increase and the biofuel standard: proposed laws to increase renewable energy used by power companies and an increase in oil company taxes. Only CAFE and biofuels made it into the final bill. So, you could really call the bill that passed the Green Auto Bill because the only substantial things in the energy bill are laws related to cars and fuels.

AutoblogGreen covered the automotive aspects of the energy bill for months and after seeing everything we covered pass and everything else not pass, I feel kinda bad for the rest of the energy bill. With $90-a-barrel oil and gas prices sure to go up next year, I guess Congress and the president could not let this one fail; now they can say they were doing something about the increase in gas prices.

Below the fold is a photo of the Energy Bill's Congressional signing ceremony.

[Source: White House, NewsHour]

This afternoon, the energy bill that requires 35 mpg by 2020 CAFE handily passed Congress. After passing in the Senate last week, the first increase in average fleet fuel economy in 32 years sailed through the House of Representatives 314-100. The auto industry's best friend in Congress, Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich., "was key to a compromise on vehicle efficiency increases," as the AP put it. As we mentioned, part of that compromise meant stripping out tax provisions for renewable energy requirements and the elimination of new incentives for plug-in hybrid vehicles. Oil companies were also spared higher taxes. President Bush has said he will sign the bill.

The new CAFE standard is part of a broad energy bill and includes a massive boost to ethanol producers. As the AP reports:

In a dramatic shift to spur increased demand for nonfossil fuels, the bill also requires a six-fold increase in ethanol use to 36 billion gallons a year by 2022, a boon to farmers. And it requires new energy efficiency standards for an array of appliances, lighting and commercial and government buildings.

With the negotiations over, the auto industry now needs to get all of their wonderful concepts out of the auto shows and onto the roads. Thirteen years should be plenty of time, even in the notoriously slow auto industry. They'll need to work hard, based on the number of cars we can buy today that will offer 35 mpg - not many.

[Source: AP]