At this point any hope of picking up a first-generation Chevy Volt anywhere near the original $30,000 price target will likely come down to what tax incentives may be available at the state and federal level. GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz has told the Seattle Times that the first-generation Volt would retail for about $40,000. Even at that level GM won't be generating any profit on the car and likely won't start doing so until at least a second-generation model comes out. Unless automotive industry lobbyists can convince Congress to pass some of the proposed legislation that includes plug-in tax credits on the order of $7,000 for a Volt-type car, the price to the consumer is going to be at least one third more than originally envisioned. The combination of high gas prices that are driving consumers away from truck and fuel economy and emissions regulations will keep pushing GM and other manufacturers towards electrically driven cars. Lutz told the paper he expected one quarter to one half of all new cars between 2020 and 2025 to be electric with either batteries or hydrogen as the energy source.

[Source: Seattle Times]

GM's product development chief Bob Lutz is one of only a handful of people to have driven the first Chevy Volt development mules with the full lithium ion battery pack in place. The mules have now been dubbed Mali-Volts alluding to the Malibu body shells that contain the E-Flex. A post went up yesterday on the GM Fastlane blog about the drive, and shortly afterward I got to have a longer one-on-one chat with the Vice-Chairman. Lutz was in a particularly good mood and he described himself as "thrilled" when he finished his first 20 mile drive at the Milford Proving Ground.

It took 14 months to go from a non-functional concept to a driveable vehicle with an all-new powertrain. Right now, one of the two battery suppliers is in the lead and all the running vehicles are equipped with packs from that company. Packs from both companies are still being bench tested however. Both Lutz's drive and the 40 mile electric drive that happened around the same time occurred on the proving ground roads, although Lutz acknowledged that since everyone knows what the cars look like they can head out on public roads too. Check out the full story at GFF and the video after the jump.

GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz has just up a new blog post describing his first drive in the first functional Chevy Volt mule. The official terminology is "engineering development vehicle" but the engineers all refer to them as mules. That's because like a mule (part horse, part donkey) these early pre-prototype vehicles are a mashup of parts from existing vehicles and development parts for the new models. They allow engineers to get a head start on testing components and systems well in advance of the first "real" prototypes being built. The first Volt mules started running at the GM Proving Ground late in 2007 but it wasn't until sometime in April that a full development lithium ion battery pack was installed in one. It also wasn't until several weeks after that the Lutz got behind the wheel. The engineers had to actually get all the systems integrated and calibrated to a reasonable level so that it could be evaluated. It's still a long, long way from production ready, but Lutz was already impressed with the performance. Check out Lutz's words and we'll have more a little later on.

[Source: GM Fastlane Blog]

The Lutz has spoken yet again (imagine that!) and the subject once more is the Volt. This time it involves reversing some of the recent flow of machinery between Australia and U.S. GM's Holden division down under was tasked with developing a global rear wheel drive architecture for the company which has resulted in the recent launch of the Pontiac G8. According to Maximum Bob, the Australians will get a crack at the Volt a couple of years after it launches in the home market. As with all new GM platforms, the E-Flex architecture is being designed to meet requirements in all major markets. That means passing U.S. and European crash requirements as well as mounting the steering wheel on either side of the cockpit.

Right from the initial briefings on the Volt, Jon Laukner and others indicated that E-Flex was meant for world-wide application with different power-train variants that are best suited to local markets. That's why the company has shown different E-Flex concepts in various countries with flex-fuel, fuel-cell and diesel range-extenders as well as three different body styles (Volt, Opel/Saturn Flextreme and Cadillac Provoq). What body style and power plant gets sent to Oz in return for the G8s and Utes is unknown at this point but the gasoline engine seems most likely.

[Source: Go Auto]

So, was Bob Lutz right, or was it just bad luck? Just as I picked up a new Mazda MX-5 to drive for a few days following the Vernal Equinox, it has started to snow (and snow, and snow). We've actually had more snow this winter than I can recall in quite a few years. Getting 4-5 more inches of the stuff the day after the official start of Spring doesn't help the argument. However, regardless of what might be happening around here on any given day, (and getting snow on Easter is not at all unusual in Michigan) the preponderance of the evidence still seems to point to the fact that something is definitely happening to our planet. Earth itself will ultimately survive - as it has before - following numerous mass extinctions. The planet is not in peril. Humans and the plant and animal species that we depend on for survival, on the other hand, are. The planet will go on and new species will crop up for several billion more years after we're long gone until the sun decides to pack it in. But if we want to stretch out our time here, we need to be a lot more thoughtful about how we utilize natural resources. Was Lutz right? It probably doesn't really matter. The problems we face with collapsing fish stocks and energy supplies are of far more immediate concern anyway.

According to Bob Lutz, General Motors has known how to make a hybrid for years, but held off of building one because they projected that they would lose as much as $250 million per year building them. What they hadn't counted on, though, was that a huge perception gap would grow in the public eye between GM's technological know-how versus Toyota's, a gap that would end up costing the company much, much more than $250 per year. So Lutz is now clear they won't make that mistake again. "We won't make a dime on this car [the Volt] for years, and the board is OK with that." The unanswered questions remain: just how much is the Volt going to cost, and how much of a loss will GM take on each one? The answers to those important questions will surely make or break the future of the range-extended plug-in hybrid project from GM.

[Source: The Detroit News]

What will you be driving in 2015? If you only drive GM vehicles, there's a one in three chance it'll be a hybrid, according to a report from Bloomberg. GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said, "around 2015 we're going to have to sell a ton of hybrids whether people want them or not." Lutz added, "it's basically going to result in the quasi-disappearance of V-8 engines." Lutz explained that the increase in sales of hybrids will be due to the new CAFE standards signed into law late last year that require car companies to make cars that, on average, get 35 miles per gallon. GM is well on its way to a having third of its U.S. cars sales being hybrids, just recently introducing their second generation mild hybrid system and promising to introduce a hybrid car every three months for the next four years.

[Source: Bloomberg via Detroit News]

The great hydrogen debate of '08 continues to heat up, with Bob Lutz from GM and Katsuaki Watanabe from Toyota echoing each other's statements regarding fuel cell vehicles for the mainstream market. The general consensus seems to be that fuel cells are still way too expensive for use in automobiles and that, since hydrogen is still not available in most areas as well as being difficult and expensive to capture and contain, what would be the point, really? Additionally, General Motors has made great strides in their lithium ion battery development, leading Lutz to comment, "If we get lithium-ion to 300 miles, then you need to ask yourself, Why do you need fuel cells?" That sounds like a reasonable question. Moreover, Toyota seems to be looking past even lithium ion batteries and into other new battery chemistries.

These new statements from GM and Toyota are in stark contrast to Daimler AG Chief Executive Dieter Zetsche's comment at Geneva that with mass-production, fuel cell drivetrains could get "into the cost range of conventional powertrains." At this point in time, it seems that an agreement is difficult to reach when it comes to the future of hydrogen. For sure, powering electric cars with power extracted from hydrogen is possible, the question is whether the technology will come down in price enough to make using it feasible for our automobiles and whether it is a better solution than just storing electricity in high-tech batteries.

[Source: The Wall Street Journal]

Ten months ago, Bob Lutz said GM cars would be $5,000 more expensive if the Bush administration got its way with fuel standards by raising fuel economy 4% every year through 2017. Bush didn't get his way, but Congress did with its newly-signed-into-law energy bill that requires automakers have a fleet average of 35 MPG by 2020. According to Lutz, that's going to be even more expensive: "This is going to be a net average cost of $6,000 per vehicle, which will have to be passed onto the consumer."

Lutz said that the premium would actually range from $4,000 to $10,000, and that "it won't come all at once, because 35 mpg doesn't kick in all at once." No one said that saving the world was going to be cheap -- but $6,000 per vehicle? We look forward to figuring out which vehicles will bear the brunt of the plan. Add $10,000 to the price of a ZR-1 and no one's really going to notice. Add $6,000 to the price of a CTS and, depending on how much more expensive its competition gets, things could get interesting. Add $4,000 to the price of an Aveo and you've probably sent a fair number of buyers elsewhere.

[Source: Detroit News]

The videos above and below the fold are parts 1 and 2 of a 50-minute speech by GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz after receiving an award at the Western Automotive Journalists' meeting. Even with no voice, jet lagged and after a drink at dinner, Bob had lots of interesting things to say. Is anyone surprised? He says, for example, that GM's CEOs took their eyes off the car business for the last 15 years, that Toyota will have egg on its face for criticizing the Volt and GM is making a $2,500 car in China. At the AutoChannel's website, they have more videos of Bob taking questions where his responses include calling the Union of Concerned Scientists a joke group and saying that if he were president he would support ethanol. Let's go through these comments, starting with assessment of the last 15 years of GM.

Bob says the "new" GM has no resemblance to the GM he knew in the sixties when he worked there or the "incredibly ponderous, multi-divisional, multi-departmental, incredibly intertwined, interlinked, almost unmanagable" GM of the seventies and eighties. Jack Smith and Rick Wagoner (GM's CEOs for the last 15 years) had to "take their eyes off the car business for a while" to struggle to clean up GM to make it lean, accountable, global and as nimble as any small, auto company ... ah, I really hope that was not slam at the late Roger Smith who served as CEO through the 80's.

In the last few minutes of the above video, after saying GM just needed a little consideration in the market place because they have improved while Toyota has not, Bob says the criticisms of the Volt by Toyota's Okamoto will be proven wrong next Easter. I will let Bob speak for himself (after the break):

[Source: YouTube, AutoChannel]

The video above is an interview with the emanently quotable GM vice Chairman Bob Lutz on GM's move towards making greener cars and CAFE standards at the 2007 LA Auto Show. Bob says the reasoning for making more fuel efficient cars is really a global one because there are places around the world with $9-a-gallon gas. Bob continues by saying they will continue to make "both" anyways (i.e make green green cars and fuel wasting sports cars and SUVs).

In the interview, Bob was specifically asked about Hillary Clinton's CAFE standard which is the mpg plan by a presidential contender that calls for the largest increase in the shortest amount of time. Bob says the candidates are on a "mad race" to outdo each other by coming up with ever larger CAFE standards. Bob then makes an apparent direct slam at Clinton's plan to give them money to "retool" their plants and repeated his apparent new reasoning that CAFE means larger cars. Here is exactly what he said:

The politicians now seem to be in a mad race to who can come out with the larger number. Nobody seems to be concerned with technological feasibility or what it's going to take in terms of technology and cost to reach these numbers. Because anybody who thinks we can just sort of retool the factory to produce 35 MPG cars obviously does not understand the situation.

Bob could have meant another candidate reference to retooling plants but I don't recall another candidate or policy asking for retooling. Anyway, just the way says "retool" makes me think Hillary's energy plan was not read happily in GM offices. Bob Lutz wittiest quote, from the many great one in this short interview, was probably that "a lot of the CAFE discussion is well intentioned, maybe, but misguided." You, sir, are a poet.

Maybe.

[Source: Wall Street Journal video]

In GM's LA Auto Show press conference, which you can watch above in full, GM Vice Chairman of Global Product Development, Bob Lutz says the same thing we reported GM CEO's Rick Wagoner said: GM will release sixteen hybrids in the next four years. Here is the exact quote:

If you want to talk hybrids; we are introducing four more hybrids in the US this year. In fact, counting the new Saturn Green Line, we are introducing sixteen hybrids in the next four years. That's one about every three months.

Bob continues saying that the 16 will include vehicles with GM's full, two-mode hybrids. Before that, Bob said GM has a goal of making and selling the most fuel efficient car in every available category, and mentioned the company already has the most fuel-efficient pick ups and has sold 2.5 M flex fuel cars. GM announced its "strong intent" to be the "world wide fuel solutions leader and undisputed environmental and technological leader in the industry." Bob says they are going to do it across their entire line of cars and not just with a single iconic green car, which Bob says they will have anyway. Bob even hinted at a lot more flex fuel cars coming from GM, whic makes me wonder if some big announcement is coming.

Basically, GM is talking to Toyota Muhammad Ali-style: we are the best and we are going to kick your butt!

[Source: Podtech]

A common auto industry argument against CAFE - regulation that requires automakers to make their overall vehicle fleet get more miles per gallon - is that it will just force small cars on the road and big vehicles off. The argument goes that the automakers will not be able to improve cars and the only solution will be for automakers to build small cars, which get higher miles per gallon simply because they are small. This not only degrades choice in the market but it hurts the car companies because they are making a product people don't want. Here is GM vice Chairman Bob Lutz saying CAFE won't change what consumers want when he spoke with Inside Line last December:

"As long as [gas] is around $2 per gallon here, people will exercise their freedom to buy the vehicle they want, V8 engine and all. ... Forcing us to alter the fleets to hit some theoretical average won't change what consumers want, or what they'll buy."

This would seem to contradict what he said in an interview with Autoline Detroit last month, which you can watch below the fold. In that interview Bob seems to say, CAFE laws actually change what people want but in a way that just might surprise you. Here is that quote:

"If we really get say every vehicle with that jump, the same thing will happen that happened last time. People don't keep the size of car they had and say, oh, this is wonderful, I am now saving $30 a month on my fuel bill. They say, oh, this is wonderful now I can pay for fuel for the next larger size. That was happening with the last CAFE legislation. People abandoned cars and went into full size V8 sport utilities."

Even if this is a not a direct contradiction, the idea that CAFE caused the SUV fad and CAFE will only push us into vans, explains a few things like GM's unusual interest in making very large hybrids. GM must think larger, more efficient vehicles are the future, popular vehicle choice. (Tip: Watch the entire video below the fold to hear Bob talk about his 3 Segways.)

[Source: Autoline, Inside Line]

David Pogue did a great segment on CBS Sunday Morning all about electric cars recently which included an interview with GM vice chairman Bob Lutz. David has a larger chunk of the interview with Bob Lutz in his e-newsletter. In the interview, Bob mentions the "batteries may or may not have exactly that shape" as the ones shown in the cutaway. Bob says "one of suppliers is even looking at doing them in little foil bags, like those airline toilettes. Except you'd accordion the whole batch of them." David then jokes "and they're not as useful in wiping your face." Bob adds "No, you would not want to wipe your face. Although lithium... you know, if you're bipolar, you can eat your battery."

Bob also says "at various stages of the program, we are going to bring in members of the media. I'm hoping that as early as spring of '08, we will have the first rough prototypes running, which will permit members of the media to drive 30 or 40 miles purely on batteries and listen to the internal combustion engine kick in." Bob is also critical of CAFE in the interview saying saying numbers like 35 MPG are "crazy." On the release date, Bob says "It'll either be late '10 or early '11, but we're still holding everybody's feet to the fire for 2010." The car will also look like the Volt, which is designed to be different from any GM car which Bob says is the "secret of the Prius."

There are funny parts to the interview as well. I especially like the joke about free Volts for reporters and David's joke about Toyota's floating car. David Pogue and Bob Lutz should do a comedy routine together with accordions.

[Source: New York Times]

This morning at the Management Briefing Seminar in Traverse City MI General Motors Vice-Chairman Bob Lutz will be speaking and making an announcement related to the Chevy Volt/E-Flex program. As the morning progresses we'll be bringing you love coverage of what he says. Stay tuned right here, bookmark and refresh this post every few minutes learn what he has to say.


Bob will be taking the stage here at 9:30 am.

9:19 Bob is now on stage joking about a poker playing dog.

He's complaining about so-called experts using the phrase Detroit Dinosaurs and he's not happy about it. "Should we believe that all the domestic manufacturers are the same kind of dumb at the same time?"

GM is in a lot better shape than it was five years ago. The industry is on the cusp of radical change and GM has a head start on transformation.

continue after the jump