New York Times calls it for the Volt over the Tesla Model S
Filed under: EV/Plug-in, Hybrid, Tesla Motors

Over at the old gray lady, Joe Nocera has cast a jaundiced eye upon the phenomenon that is Tesla Motors and comes away with the conclusion that the Chevy Volt will come away as the winner. In fact Nocera seems very skeptical that pure battery electric cars will be a viable mainstream prospect anytime soon. Certainly based solely on the example of Tesla, it does not seem likely that a start-up will succeed in producing an EV for the masses profitably anytime soon. As I've said here many times building an affordable mass market car is actually a lot harder than building a high-dollar sports car, and Tesla has clearly shown that even that is no easy feat. Tesla hopes to build the Model S sedan in about two years at a cost starting at $60,000. The model S is unlikely to match the nominal range of the Roadster at the base price, especially when you consider that it will be a much larger heavier car made of aluminum rather than carbon fiber (over an aluminum structure). Even the Roadster only achieves a little more than half its nominal range of 227 miles when driven hard. Contrary to Elon Musk who thinks hybrids and ER-EVs are a red herring, Nocera feels that the Volt is a far more viable candidate for success.
What Nocera doesn't touch on is the small Japanese EVs that are coming from the likes of Mitsubishi, Subaru and Nissan. Mitsubishi in particular seems extremely confident about the iMiEV. Only time will tell.
[Source: New York Times]











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
7-21-2008 @ 9:52AM
axiom said...
There's no such thing as a liberal or conservative press, there are just corporate spokesmen, actors trained in the art of psychology who come on TV or write "news"papers for the benefit of their conglomerate. It doesn't surprise me that that the NYT would "look after its own".
If the Model is S is half the range of Roadster, heck, even a 3rd of that, it would show up the Volt. Elon has also mentioned that they expect battery prices to enable them to sell a $30,000 sedan two years after the Model S is released. Even if they only come through halfway, how could they lose to a company thats "new" strategy for success entirely depends on replacing the name "SUV" with "CUV".
I would be surprised if GM even survives to sell their first Volt. And the tiny production numbers (10K units in 2011) show they are not even serious. Its just a gimmick to hold up a complete selloff of their turd stock. Maybe at the bankruptcy auction Elon will by some of GM's manufacturing capacity!
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7-21-2008 @ 9:53AM
mike k. said...
My belief is that until quick charging is as fast as filling up at a gas pump, some kind of range extension or fuel cell sort of thing is needed.
Maybe this is more of an american mindset than anything else (i mean heck if you buy a pure electric car and then need to go on a long trip, it'd probably be cheaper and better in the long run for you to just rent a car when you need something for a long haul). Though people like to have that flexibility right.
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7-21-2008 @ 10:28AM
UH2L said...
This post brings up a great point...
Tesla is charging $60-$100,000 for their cars, have hardly produced any yet, and yet they are (generally) media and environmentalist darlings. They don't even know what their final production volumes will be, and they are only making a limited volume and aren't even sure what their full production rate is. Based on the comment on their blog that they have accumulated 100,000 miles with their new transmission, I foresee some significant reliability or safety issues due to their lack of experience. Based on my powertrain engineering experience, I know that 100K miles is nothing when it comes to validating a powertrain!
On the other hand, people complain about the prospect of the Volt costing $40,000, it will have the flexibility to run on gas when necessary (to get you to the next place to recharge), and will be built by a company that has been making vehicles for 100 years. And in this case, people like Axiom above call it gimmick.
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7-21-2008 @ 12:58PM
axiom said...
"On the other hand, people complain about the prospect of the Volt costing $40,000, "
$40,000... which brings it above what most people can afford. Not exactly a savior (which GM needs to stay alive) when its priced out the range of what most customers can afford. They will be disappointed, walk to the next dealership, and buy a plug-in Pruis, which comes out a year early at about 10xs the production rate of the Volt.
"it will have the flexibility to run on gas when necessary (to get you to the next place to recharge), and will be built by a company that has been making vehicles for 100 years."
A company.... with a record of building underwhelming, poor quality cars over the last decade. A company with a business strategy so bad there are serious doubts about whether it will make it to the year 2010. People don't want two weak engines feeding off each other - they want one strong engine that can take where they need to go and back home at minimum cost, preferably without every having to buy gas.
"And in this case, people like Axiom above call it gimmick."
What do you call a high MRP with flat-line production numbers (10K units) and what will have been a 4 year PR stunt (if and when its released in 2011) detailing every bit of progress? A GIMMICK. The Toyota Prius will be producing over 100,000 units of their plugin in 2010. THAT, is what you call serious backing. GM meanwhile plans to keep production of the Volt very, very low, with no mention of expending the supposedly revolutionary tech to their other vehicles.
Telsa is a startup and has very legitimate reasons for initial limited production. However even their stated goal of producing 100K units annually is higher that what GM plans to eventually produce for the Volt (60K units annually). GM IS NOT serious about the Volt.
If it ever gets released, seeing a Volt will be like seeing a Hummer. Every once in a while you'll see some guy drive by in his Volt, you turn your head and look, and then get back to thinking about buying some other car that gets good mileage and is actually affordable. When Telsa releases its $30K Sedan in 4 years, THAT will be the new Prius.
7-21-2008 @ 12:59PM
Serge said...
UH2L, the reason why Tesla is the "darling" and GM is not is of course the history. Tesla Motors was born "out of nothing" to show that an electric can be made as a viable product. Facing tremendous odds they've delivered the Roadster and are well on their way to delivering a more main-stream product.
GM, of course, has a [negative] legacy of EV-1 to overcome. A 100 year old company should know something about planning for the next 100 years. Every passing day reveals how wrong they were about nipping EV-1 Program in the bud. Instead of leading as they should, GM is playing catchup to a start-up. I hope the lessons are learned and Volt is introduced on time or, by miracle or sheer will, sooner. Then we can talk about GM ...
7-21-2008 @ 3:52PM
DJL said...
GM is supposed to introduce the plug in two mode Saturn VUE very soon.
There is no reason why this drivetrain won't work in a Malibu or Cobalt/Cruze.
Unfortunately, GM has been wasting their R&D money on the Volt. So we'll have to wait for truly impressive parallel hybrids from GM.
7-24-2008 @ 2:24PM
Joe said...
Tesla is purposely delaying the delivery of cars to customers because their powertrain 1.5 is almost ready for production. It produces more torque and is more efficient than their powertrain 1.0. They have publicly stated that they will retrofit every Tesla roadster that has a powertrain 1.0 with the powertrain 1.5 once it is production ready. They released the cars with the powertrain 1.0 to a selected customers who are actually doing final quality assurance testing if you think about it.
Releasing cars with the powertrain 1.0 allows Tesla to beat the big automakers to market. They got so much press from it. The big automakers are no where close to production releases with their cars. Tesla has such a huge jump on the competition. We hear a lot about the Chevy Volt but it will be over a year before one rolls off the assembly line.
There will be more excitement when the powertrain 1.5 is production ready. They will then ramp up production because that really is the first final product that will not be retrofitted.
7-21-2008 @ 10:31AM
UH2L said...
Sorry for the poor grammar above. I didn't edit it very well.
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7-21-2008 @ 11:05AM
BlackbirdHighway said...
Why is it either-or? They are both great alternatives to the ordinary dino burners on the road today.
Are we to believe that there isn't enough room for TWO alternative vehicles?
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7-21-2008 @ 11:22AM
Anth said...
"The Chevy Volt, which the company wants to bring to market in 2010, is a plug-in hybrid that aspires to be able to travel 40 miles before switching to gasoline power. But the best part is that the combustion engine will automatically recharge the battery — so it can switch back even while you’re driving."
That quote from the NYT article, particularly the last part of the last sentence shows the author doesn't know squat about how the volt will work. "Switch back" doesn't make any sense in the context of a serial hybrid. Turn off maybe, but that assumes the ICE can charge the battery much quicker than its being drained, which sounds inefficient to begin with.
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7-21-2008 @ 1:03PM
Joseph said...
I read the article, and I don't think it is a very big deal. The journalist is just simply stating their opinion. It's kind of silly to base your opinion upon two design concepts that have barely been explored: PHEVs and EVs. But that wasn't what the whole article was about; it was more about the current state of EV progress.
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7-21-2008 @ 1:24PM
Tony Belding said...
BlackbirdHighway got it right. The loser isn't going to be the company with the second-best EV. The loser will be the company that has no EV.
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7-24-2008 @ 1:08AM
Lars said...
uhh...that would be Ford. They said they are 5 years
out. Will they last that long?
7-21-2008 @ 1:28PM
meme said...
"My belief is that until quick charging is as fast as filling up at a gas pump"
It is. Thanks for playing. Look up the J1772 Avcon Level 3 standard, and its implementations by Aerovironment's PosiCharge line, which are already installed around Oahu. Don't feel bad; the author of the NYT article wasn't aware of them either, when they wrote:
" either a place where people can stop to charge the battery (although that still means waiting hours to get a full charge)"
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7-21-2008 @ 2:21PM
Whopper said...
"What do you call a high MRP with flat-line production numbers (10K units) and what will have been a 4 year PR stunt (if and when its released in 2011) detailing every bit of progress? A GIMMICK. " " Elon has also mentioned that they expect battery prices to enable them to sell a $30,000 sedan two years after the Model S is released."
In his own words Axiom describes Tesla. To him a half dozen $100K roadsters = production while 10K units of a $40K sedan is a gimmick. Axiom, your bias is showing. And Elon "mentions" a $30K sedan to follow the Model S introduction...now that sounds like a "plan" doesn't it?
A decade from now GM will be building and selling high volumes of economical cars of various designs and Tesla will be another foot note in automotive history.
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7-21-2008 @ 3:10PM
axiom said...
"In his own words Axiom describes Tesla. To him a half dozen $100K roadsters = production while 10K units of a $40K sedan is a gimmick. Axiom, your bias is showing. And Elon "mentions" a $30K sedan to follow the Model S introduction...now that sounds like a "plan" doesn't it?"
You are comparing two completely different cars, The Roadster is not intended to be a mass produced, affordable car - which the Volt is, or rather, WAS intended to be.
"A decade from now GM will be building and selling high volumes of economical cars of various designs and Tesla will be another foot note in automotive history."
If GM lives it will be because they beat Tesla at their own game (electric cars) which would mean GM would have converted the majority of its fleet to pure-electrics or plug-in hybrids by the middle of the next decade. If that happens, more power to 'em. But their ploy with the Volt shows they have ZERO intention of doing anything like that, and so it can be assumed the same idiots that almost brought complete bankruptcy to GM are still at the reigns. I expect bankruptcy shortly before or after the Volt - IF by some miracle they can survive for another 6 months.
7-21-2008 @ 4:10PM
Bill said...
No chance GM will be going bankrupt, not with the jobs (and the votes) they represent.
If necessary, they'll get their own line of credit with the Fed.
I expect battery leasing will be coming for the Volt, given the expense of the battery pack.
But Tesla will *never* have the manufacturing facilities on their own to deliver mass-market EVs in any quantity - they'd have to partner with someone to beat even that limited 10K Volt projected initial year run.
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7-21-2008 @ 4:45PM
axiom said...
"No chance GM will be going bankrupt, not with the jobs (and the votes) they represent. If necessary, they'll get their own line of credit with the Fed."
Good to know we've completely transitioned to a Fascist government, where corporations don't need to worry about petty things like market strategy or business practice. If you have enough people working for you the government will JUST BAIL YOU OUT! Or not. But then again I thought you people always preached the virtue of "free markets". Since we're so pro-annexing corporations for the benefit of voters, why don't we annex some of Exxon's profits. Oh thats right, "free market blah blah blaaah".
Too bad Obama is against the idea of a bailout, there will no free lunch for GM! They better hurry up and file chapter 11 while the chimp is still in office! Only a few months left!
7-21-2008 @ 6:01PM
Serge said...
Nobody is talking Chapter 7 bankruptcy, i.e. liquidation. Chapter 11 is well in the realm of possibility.
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7-21-2008 @ 6:53PM
axiom said...
"Nobody is talking Chapter 7 bankruptcy, i.e. liquidation."
Nobody who? you?
Merrill says GM bankruptcy possible
Wed Jul 2, 2008
DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp will need to raise as much as $15 billion in cash to shore up liquidity and bankruptcy is "not impossible" if the U.S. auto market continues to slump, Merrill Lynch said.
http://www.reuters.com/article/burningIssues/idUKN0244077620080702
And not even two weeks later...............
GM Hopes to Add $15 Billion in Liquidity; Cuts Dividend
By Reuters | 15 Jul 2008 |
http://www.cnbc.com/id/25685707/site/14081545
It looks like GM is just hanging by its coat tails. Its also interesting that the article says GM will soon begin borrowing money from the UAW. LOL!
Here is another interesting quote from that second article:
"Lehman Brothers analyst Brian Johnson called the cost-cutting targets "relatively credible" but said the overall plan fell short of a vision for renewal. "The announcements offered little sense of a 'new' GM strategy or shift in the organizational culture that might set the stage for a more dramatic reinvention," he said in a note to clients. "
Hmmm. I have a major new strategy for GM. Bring back the EV1, make it half your fleet, and sell it at $12,000. It will be cheered as the "new model T" and GM will be saved!