AutoblogGreen

Down 22% on the market to around half of what I paid a year ago. Apparently the market doesn't much like the Copeland chap. I've a bad feeling that Altair has missed their window, at least with their nanosafe product. Ah well. It's only money...

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If they can't start making batteries in massive quantities, they definitely have missed their opportunity.

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It would be sad to write them off so early. Altair appears to have a viable product proposition. Suitable for a wide variety of applications in the portable electric drive market.

To convince potential customers. They need to show a bit more credibility in other aspects of the business:

1. Demonstrate consistent, high quality reliable product with good product support and acceptable warranty.

2. A roadmap to establish manufacturing capacity. With capability to ramp volume and reduce costs.

3. Ability to sell existing product at acceptable market rate to early adopters. (Some call this loss leading)

I don't think they have the financial backing to loss lead. They have not established a credible low cost manufacturing capability.

I also question whether they have the full range of engineering, marketing and sales expertise to go to market with this puppy.

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The original business objective of Altair Nano was to develop and sell pharmaceutical nanomaterials, their battery is sort of a sideline issue for them. Altair may end up spinning off that division, or license it, or just sell nanomaterials to other battery makers.

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If they are just thinking of spinning off the technology, the company should be valued accordingly and marked down.

Their technology advantage is not so difficult to play catch up with. Other battery companies are racing to develop safe and high power density batteries.

Their advantage is having a working chemistry today. They need a high volume manufacturing deal soon or they can just fade into oblivion.

BTW. Any self respecting engineering director would not put Altair batteries in their product unless they are confident of solid product support and availability. For say the next 5-7 years.

They need to partner quickly or pony up the money to establish high volume/low cost.

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After Fridays beating I listened to the most recent conference call again. The play here is with AES and fixed power supply, not with auto batteries. If there is a good report from the independent testing of the existing project then the stock could snap back quite well. Also, this got oversold on Friday in part because of the market and not just because of Copeland. Watch for a bounce---nobody was going to stop the fall Friday afternoon the way that it was trading and with such high volume

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