$200 oil "Super Spike" within 6 months?
Filed under: Etc.
If $120+ per barrel of black gooey stuff of puts you in a bad mood, you might not want to read this. According to energy strategist Argun Murti of Goldman Sachs, "Surging demand was increasingly likely to create a 'super-spike' past $200 in six months to two years' time." Yikes! Ethel, get in the ark! No, first help me with this pair of aardvarks! While a high price for oil might bode well for the environment if it translates into less of the stuff being burned just to move us around, that large a gain in as little as 6 months could really put an economic hurtin' on people the world over. I probably don't need to remind everyone that the cost of, well, everything is pretty much tied in some way to the price of fuel. Of course, we did bring up the possibility before a couple months ago and even OPEC has mentioned it but with the time frame potentially being so incredibly compressed, it's a little worrisome. The rise is being blamed on a slow speed of growth of supply coupled with increased usage in countries like China and India. Maybe it's time to dust off that bicycle. Thanks to Aviv for the tip.
[Source: The Economic Times]











Reader Comments (Page 2 of 2)
5-08-2008 @ 2:13PM
Guenther said...
Wise- 6.29 bushels is 350#, which contains about as much energy as one human uses in a year. Sure if you feed a chicken, a cow and a pig first, it takes more energy.
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5-08-2008 @ 4:34PM
len simpson said...
oil price terrorism affects more people than tradecenters. Escape from foreign oil should be our first priority,& it,s quite possible
if we could get oilpeople out of government.
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5-08-2008 @ 10:07PM
William Crabtree said...
..but in actuality (in response to someone's post that it does not effect prices), it DOES cause price increases.
Just ask any diner that orders flour in bulk amounts. In the last 8 months flour prices have tripled in price BECAUSE OF more farmers growing corn crop to meet the "demand" for the most popular version of ethanol.
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5-09-2008 @ 10:30AM
virgil said...
WOW, so many wrong opinions in one place.
First off, go here...
http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches
...and read at least half a dozen of the presentations, to get a real picture of why oil prices are rising.
Bottom line, it doesn't matter if we in the US all switch over to biofuels and start driving hybrids tomorrow, there are a couple billion Chinese and Indian citizens (i.e. 8-10 times as many people as in the US) just waiting to soak up the oil that we don't burn. World oil demand is about 88bn BOD equiv', and production peaked in May 2005 at 74.3.
Second, switchgrass - c'mon! What a joke. It requires CELLULOSIC ethanol processing to get the fuel out, which is not yet commercially viable on a large scale. Anyone who says otherwise is just speculating. We are still 5-10 years from having cellulosic ethanol in anything like the quantities required to meet demand. Not to say there aren't a few examples, but they just simply can't handle the quantities needed right NOW.
Third, different types of corn... it doesn't matter if food-corn and fuel-corn are different types of corn. If farmers plant more of the latter, there's less land available to grown the former. Arable land is not a limitless resource. And let's face it, our food production system (I would rather not call it "agriculture" because it's not related in any way to historical practices), is utterly and completely dependent on fossil fuels. Read "The Omnivore's Dilemma" and other books by Michael Pollan for some details on this.
Fourth, in case anyone hadn't noticed, our president is a former oilman, our vice president is an oilman, our banking and financial systems are woefully under-regulated (sub-prime anyone?), and the farm lobby is massive in DC (recent passage of the bloated farm bill being just one example). It is therefore hardly surprising that rampant speculation will occur, and people like this douche-bag from GS will talk up commodities to make a fast buck. Instead of whining about it, why not go out and do something about it... Plant your garden with crops, drive less, buy a bike, get rid of your SUV, move closer to work so your commute is shorter, make sure your tires are inflated.
Peak oil is here (it's already passed), and no amount of whining about oil speculators is gonna bring the price back down again. The next few years are gonna be sheer hell for our economy, and those who just refuse to believe it despite all the evidence are going to be hit the hardest.
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