J.D. Power predicting that diesels and hybrids to grab 17% by 2015
Filed under: Diesel, Flex-Fuel, Hybrid
A new study by J.D. Power and associates is projecting that the combined market share of diesel and hybrid power-trains will hit seventeen percent in the U.S. by the middle of the next decade. The analysis also projects that smaller displacement four cylinder and flex-fuel engines will take a much larger share than they do today as demand wanes for more powerful engines. Between the diesels and hybrids, the former are expected to take a significantly larger share due to lower cost. The cost premium for hybrids is expected to remain higher going forward. This extra cost will drive more adoption of technologies like direct fuel injection and turbocharging of smaller displacement gas engines going forward since the cost is a lot lower.
Power is projecting that the cost premium for automakers to achieve the 35mpg standard will be $4,000-5,000 even though cars in Europe already meet that threshold. The study apparently presumes that American car buyers won't be willing to shift to the smaller, lower powered cars that dominate the European market. If U.S. car buyers insist on continuing to drive larger cars and trunks while trying to achieve those higher mileage numbers, it will be costly to make the upgrades. If on the other hand they are willing to change their buying habits, the premium could be a lot smaller. Pure battery electrics and fuel cells will probably both remain a negligible part of the market primarily due to high cost.
[Source: Detroit News]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
4-07-2008 @ 12:54PM
rgseidl said...
Of course, those more fuel-efficient cars in Europe and Japan cost more than cars in the US do. Sophisticated engines and transmissions cost extra, as do weight optimization and passive crash safety for small cars.
Also note that all turbocharged engines are by definition hybrids, just not *electric* hybrids.
Finally, predictions are always wrong, especially the ones about the future. Customer acceptance of diesels will depend in large measure on the premium commanded by a gallon of that fuel, currently more like 20-25% than the 12% you'd expect based on energy density alone. And if the price of oil should plunge - as it has done several times in the past - all bets are off anyhow.
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4-07-2008 @ 1:18PM
eddy said...
About 50% of all new cars sold in Germany are Diesels. So a market share of more than 15% in other parts of the world seems very realistic.
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4-07-2008 @ 4:05PM
b33gee said...
Does anyone give a rat's patootie about what these GM-a$$ kissers at JD power think? I'm suprised they didn't add a footnote saying that they expect Bob Lutz to single-handedly fix global warming and the energy crisis.
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4-07-2008 @ 4:29PM
mike said...
Pure battery electrics will probably remain negligible...
Only because these damn manufacturers won't build them.
There's demand, there's no supply.
The first hybrid, or EV, with a plug get's my money.
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4-07-2008 @ 4:31PM
Richard said...
"The study apparently presumes that American car buyers won't be willing to shift to the smaller, lower powered cars that dominate the European market."
Have they seen recent sales figures for small economy car lately? Through the roof.
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4-07-2008 @ 5:42PM
Sam Abuelsamid said...
Mike, there is a huge demand for battery electrics... at an affordable price point and reasonable range. What there is not as of yet is a battery with that range that comes anywhere close to that price point.
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4-08-2008 @ 7:03AM
Bill said...
I wouldn't call modern turbodiesels "slow".
They compete with turbo-charged gassers (which require premium, at nearly the same price as diesel)
Not so sure I'll buy a VW turbodiesel, but there are plenty coming from other manufacturers next year.
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