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GM NEVER "guaranteed" production in 2010. It is simply a goal. Better later and Good than sooner and CRAP! We don't need another Vega.

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The PC mag definition of Vaporware:

An item not yet in production with an announced delivery date has either passed or is incrementally postponed without a firm production date. At times, manufacturers are criticized for intentionally producing vaporware in order to keep customers from switching to products from competitors. Sometimes the gap between management and technical staff in companies is large and dates slip because the project is not managed properly, which can be caused by management's lack of understanding of the scope of the project as well as a lack of competence of the technical staff. In addition, as projects progress new functions and changes always seem to creep in due to poor planning causing leading edge products to become commonplace or dated by the time they come to production, if ever. Remember This Well - As bad as incompetent managers are at estimating the length of a project, they are equally as optimistic about their ability to meet the requirements and deadlines.

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There is viable technology already, from GM, field tested and everything. Used several years ago in a real car.

IT WAS CALLED THE EV1. Could somebody please explain to me why the system used in the EV1 could not be used in the Volt? What's wrong with the battery system and control units designed for that car? Those who had that car loved it...until GM refused to let them keep it. (for whatever reason) For relatively little development cost they could have rebodied the EV1 with four doors and had them in showrooms already.

The basic technology was there 100 years ago, hell Jay Leno has an old electric from back then. He still drives it on occasion.

It's a management CHOICE, nothing more.

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The reason the EV-1 technology is not used is because the car did not sell, don't believe the movie. There were not millions of people who wanted an EV-1 and the mean GM/oil cartel conspired to help GM lose money by canceling the car. Yes, there were some people who absolutely loved the car, but the fact is the car did not sell well, the range was too short for most people. Toyota found the same issue with the electric RAV-4. GM needs to make money, in order to do so they have to make a car that has appeal to more than 50 celebrities in California. The Volt has to meet much more stringent safety requirements than the EV-1 had to. car buyers also expect certain amenities and a certain level of performance. I have no doubt the Volt will be built, if it comes out in 2011 so what?

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The EV-1 used materials and manufacturing processes far more exotic and expensive (especially ten years ago) than the $90,000 Tesla Roadster.

The EV-1 program was still a pilot program. GM lost huge sums of money on it. The lease payments they charged did not approach GM's actual costs.

No one in their right mind would pay the real cost of an EV-1. It would be nearly as expensive as a Tesla and still only seat 2 people.

If anyone really wants an EV that can travel 150 miles on a charge, they can convert a gas powered car. And replace the batteries every year or two.

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Throwback:

EV-1 was NOT available for sale, period. RAV-4 was rumored to be canceled because it cannot get the batteries from 3rd parties anymore.

In either case, people are missing the point.

The delay of the Volt is just an excuse, because GM have had DECADES of experiences in making EVs. I'm not just talking about EV-1, but all the work done for hydrogen fuel-cells vehicles, which are just EVs with fuel-cell as a power source.

All the technology to bring out the Volt is already here. All that it left is the logistics to make the car profitable, which is likely the core of why GM hesitates.

The first Prius was hardly a money-marker. However, the reason Prius II exists is because Toyota is committed to project. Not that I'm saying they're doing it out of the goodness of their heart. Toyota saw potential in the hybrid market and their gamble paid off.

GM can easily trump the Prius with the Volt, but I have a feeling that they rather enjoy the success of the PR campaign for now. All other companies will bring out some kind of hybrids for MY 2009-2010 anyways. Perhaps GM wants to reassess the field before committing to the project anyways.

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Dave:

Your argument about the cost of EV-1 technology is irrelevant. A cheap cellphone today would have cost thousands of dollars in the 80s. It would be more applicable to talk about the limiting factor TODAY in regards to making an EV. For example, today, there is probably not any one supplier that can provide enough batteries for 30,000 Chevy Volt annually.

While the development and material cost of the Tesla is high, a good portion of that cost is the labor involve and the fact they do not have the capacity to mass produce the product. If GM decides that it wants to make an EV version of the Corvette, it can probably do it much much cheaper than Tesla.

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It's not so much technology as economics.

Large-format lithium-ion batteries you'd use in a vehicle are still well over $1000/kWh, IIRC.

Obviously, you can't put 16kWh of those in a $30,000 Volt until the cost drops significantly.

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Get a grip all you conspiracy theorists. It takes 4 years for an automaker to develop and validate a normal car without a lot of new technology. GM is developing the Volt in 4 years, they announced the Volt in Jan of 2006 and confirmed production shortly after. 2010 would be a tight time line on any production car. Its really tight on one with a totally new battery type that has to be validated and the process for the validation has to be invented. GM is betting hundreds of millions of dollars that they can get the volt into production, they are not playing games for PR purposes. They probably will miss their 2010 deadline but not by much.

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It's ALL about the batteries. Period.
Designing and making a Volt type vehicle is not that hard (especially for companies that already make hybrids). It's all about battery cost, battery availability, battery safety, battery weight. You can currently have some of those, but not all at the same time. Li batteries are currently too expensive and too low in production, while other technologies are too heavy.

Whichever car company first gets access to safe, low cost, high volume Li ion batteries will be the first car company to mass produce a long range plug in or EV. It's ALL about the batteries.

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If It's all about the batteries, then GM should have brought out smaller car's first instead of this Malibu sized Volt.

1 Economy care the size of the Subaru EV
2 A small sports car with higher profit margins.
Then the long wait for a big battery
Malibu/Volt

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I've already stated that batteries is a limiting factor, but I do not agree that alone is the reason why GM won't commit (or bring out the volt) on time.

If GM wants to fast-track a project, it can do it in less than 4 years. If the cost of batteries is an issue, they can offer a battery-lease option, which can be a GOOD thing for early models anyways.

Again, the PR buzz is a low cost way for GM to stay relevant in the alt-fuel-vehicle game. GM is barely making any hybrids. GM refuses to disclose the sales numbers of their hybrids. To me, that means they want to carefully manage the image of the hybrid product line. I think I've read that there will only be a couple thousand two-mode hybrid made anyways. It's a good, safe business approach, but doesn't really spell any real commitment in the alt-fuel business to me.

Again, GM, Ford, Chrysler, they have a long history of boasting about projects that they never follow through (fuel-cell vehicles, for example). The Volt may be on the table, and it's true that there are a lot of challenges, but I just don't see GM really committing to the project as much as they say they are.

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The Volt will be built on the next generation Cobalt platform so it will not be the size of the Malibu. GM is using this platform to so they can make a decent size (by American standards) car. A car the size of the Subaru EV would have a very small market. Witness how much larger the 2nd gen Prius is. Charles S. I know the EV-1 was for lease only, but my comment still stands there was NO demand for the car. the EV-1 was yesterday, the Volt is tomorrow.

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This is sure a lot of noise coming out of a non-event. A few months ago Bob Lutz said the Volt would probably debut in 2011, although he was really holding the team's feet to the fire and striving for late 2010 if possible. Flash forward to today (or yesterday, technically) when Rick Wagoner says basically the same thing, and suddenly it's news. I don't get it.

As for why it's taking so long. . . Mike has it exactly right. It takes a long time to bring any new car model to market. You can't flip a switch and start cranking them out overnight. Just look at how long it's taking for them to turn the Camaro show car into a production vehicle, you'll see the same thing.

As for why they didn't simply start making EV1s again. . . Think about it! They'd have to upgrade the battery chemistry to make it competitive, which means they'd be doing much of the same R&D work the Volt requires. They'd have to revise it to newer safety standards. They'd have to line up suppliers again, and set up a new production line. Ultimately they wouldn't save much time. It wouldn't make sense to go that route to bring an EV to market merely a few months sooner, as compared with an all-new and greatly improved (PHEV, four-seat) vehicle.

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OK , mr. Wagoner doesn't promise the Volt in 2010. But somehow I believe, Toyota will surprize once again by that time.

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I was very excited when the Volt concept was introduced last year (although they don't have a working prototype yet). But I'm not holding my breath anymore. I've still yet to see an actual working prototype. I'd be pissed off if GM one day say that they can't produce the Volt because existing battery technologies couldn't meet the required challenges.

Maybe GM should just create a plugin 2-mode hybrid technology and use that to compete with the Prius? This might be quicker to come to market and would start attracting buyers and profits for GM. I would LOVE for the new Malibu come with this technology.

As for the EV1, maybe its true that GM was actually losing money and that the production cost of each car could have been as expensive as a tesla roadster. But why did they have to destroy all the EV1's after getting it back from their customers? Now I'm not trying to speak of conspiracy theories as the case with that movie "Who Killed the Electric Car", but what do you think if Tesla all of a sudden destroyed all of their electric roadsters for some strange reason?

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Since this is a big project for GM they are wise to keep the execs circumspect about delivery. If we are prepared to wait to 2011 and Lutz and Waggoner deliver before then - it's a PR triumph. What is without question is that GM must deliver this car and it must be the best work they've done in the last thirty years.

Given they can do that - the market will reward GM with a huge market share and maybe even a leadership award (or two.)

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