Filed under: Etc., EV/Plug-in, Manufacturing/Plants, Solar, Legislation and Policy, Natural Gas
That cool new electric car could cost you a lot more to charge up
A basic principal of economics is that of supply and demand. If demand for a commodity rises and the supply does not, the price increases. With demand for electricity in the US expected to increase by fifty percent over the next three decades and expansion of generating capacity in a holding pattern in many cases, prices for electricity are expected to rise. With the cost of many power plants already at well over $1 billion and rising thanks to increased construction costs, power utilities are reluctant to commit the funds unless they know they can get a return. Unfortunately inaction by the government on either pollution standards or conservation efforts is leaving power companies with a lot of uncertainty about what will be required in the future. With that much money at stake, they are unwilling to take the risk. There are too many unanswered questions about CO2 emissions standards, natural gas availability and utility regulations. Since the move to deregulate utilities over the past decade has almost never actually resulted in reduced prices for consumers, new rules are being considered that also make companies reluctant to invest. The bottom line is that with renewable electricity still a tiny portion of overall capacity, we could be looking at serious issues down the road and much higher costs to charge batteries in EVs.
[Source: CNN Money]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Kardax 4:22PM (9/21/2007)
In three decades, gasoline and diesel will be a lot more expensive, too.
EVs will always be cheaper to fill up than oil-based options. In 30 years it may cost $20 to fill up a Tesla Roadster-sized battery, but by then a gasoline fill up will probably cost in excess of $200.
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Jason 4:46PM (9/21/2007)
Also, the cost of renewable energy for the home will be way more affordable. Right now it's around 20K for a full solar array to power a medium size house. With the leaps companies are making in this field I can see the cost of home solar power being a VERY viable alternative in the future.
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pkuhl 4:54PM (9/21/2007)
EVs can be charged overnight when demand is low. Ergo, little or no additional demands on the network.
Oh, electricity is cheaper during those times too.
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rgseidl 5:00PM (9/21/2007)
The conclusion drawn by CNN Money is erroneous because it assumes that EV owners will want to refuel their cars quickly and during the day. Yet the whole point of going electric is that you can recharge slowly at night in your garage. Enterprising apartment complex owners may decide to install outdoor outlets with a suitable lock. Stalls are usually allocated to specific housing units anyhow, so the electric bill for your car (plus a fee) is tacked onto your rent.
There is ample generating and grid capacity to support a fleet of millions of EVs dotted around the country. All that's needed is more fuel for the power plants.
California did make a hash of its deregulation, starving the grid of badly needed investment. Add to that the ZEV mandate and rampant NIMBYism regarding all types of power plant construction and you have a perfect storm of the state's own making. However, California isn't the US.
Indeed, if a large fleet of EVs is trickle-charged at night, the improved capacity utilization actually accelerates break-even on investments, putting downward pressure on prices in the market. Achieving this is simply a question of charging a preferential rate for night-time electricity.
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Golden Boy 5:19PM (9/21/2007)
Even so, the electricity will be coming from the US, not the jihad nor Chavez.
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bioburner 8:02PM (9/21/2007)
Charge you EVs off peak-ya right. Guess nobody out there actually worked for an electric company. Sure in the spring and Fall seasons there is lots of unused generating capacity-That's when most of the power plants are shut down for maintenance so the excess capacity is not really there. Get a nice hot summer day or a cold winter NIGHT and most electric companies are scrambling for generating capacity. I doubt the electric industry could supply enough power to charge 240 million BEVs on demand. Lets see most car companies are talking about delivering BEVs in 2010 that's 3 years from now. It takes 10 years to build a nuke plant. It takes 5 years to get a coal plant built and that assumes the locals will allow you build it in their neigherhood.
A chevy volt can go 40 miles on 1 charge of 16 KWH. for a 12,500 mile per year driver that comes to 5000 KWHs of electricity per year. Most people drive larger, heavier cars like SUVs and 3/4 ton trucks. These people are going to be using 50,000 KWHs of electricity per year- 3 time what I use to run my all electric house in Norther Virginia.
Think Solar PV is the answer. It helps no doubt it. But unbeleively expensive. Most 10KW solar systems run about $100,000. If your lucky and you live in Arizona or Mn. the local electric companies will chip in $3 per installed DC watt that brings the price down to $20k to $30K range but for the rest of us it's just too expensive.
As soon as millions of people start charging up their BEVs at night the excess capacity is going to disappear and electric prices at night time will skyrocket.
There are some good ideas out there. Putting solar panels on the roof of the BEVs to help recharge the battery with no or reduced impact on the grid. Allowing smart charging-ie connecting you car to the grid and let the electric company select the charge rate based on grid availability.
I'm going to have to agree with the guys at CNN money. The price of electricity is going to skyrocket in a few years.
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Bill 9:42PM (9/21/2007)
40 miles on 8 kWh
There's plenty of nighttime capacity to meet that extra 8 kWh of demand.
And it's likely to be cheap, since utilities already offer power at less than half the day rate to businesses willing to install a A/C system that makes a huge block of ice overnight for use the next day (instead of running a compressor)
Or you could install a 2 kW solar system (as low as $6000 w/ tax incentives) and charge it during the day.
It will be a very long time (more than 10 years) before there are 240 million EVs on the road, so there's plenty of time to plan for additional grid capacity.
>A chevy volt can go 40 miles on 1 charge of 16 KWH
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Phil L. 10:33PM (9/21/2007)
Of course, the whole cost concept for off-peak charging presumes that your utility supports household off-peak pricing (mine doesn't). That will probably change soon, too...
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Chris M 1:46AM (9/22/2007)
Jeez, Bioburner sure went off on a rant! However it's a little off in several areas. Electric power consumption drops late at night, even during cold weather, as many stores, offices, and factories are closed and shut down, and most people go to bed and turn off the TV and all the lights. The proposed Volt is to use only half its battery capacity, 8 Kwh, for a 40 mile EV range. While a plug-in SUV or truck would use more electricity, it is silly to assume they'd use 10 times as much as the Volt - after all, even a gas guzzling Hummer doesn't use 10 times as much gas per mile as a Prius!
Electric rates would have to increase 4 to 6 times for plug-ins to equal the current per mile cost of petrol - and by the time electric rates increased that much, petrol prices would also have increased significantly. Driving electric will always be cheaper.
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SolarDave 8:39AM (9/22/2007)
I have a 11.5kW system on my house. It cost $90K, but CT refunded $50K on the spot. There's a $2K federal tax credit, which could be removed leaving a 30% project tax credit (House has approved, awaiting the Senate). And I get paid for generating renewable energy (renewable energy credits). Thus I could pay the whole system off in 5-7 years. And it's flush mounted, 2" off my roof, so it's looks integrated.
Solar is here.
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Nicholas 12:09PM (9/22/2007)
Time for some homemade electricity...
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