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I really hate politicians who make promises for things that won't actually happen until long after they leave office. The only actions that really count are the ones that take effect during their term, everything else can be revised by the next person to take the office. It's fine to plan for the long term future, but those plans have to be combined with real action on the initial stages of the plan.

Given that, I think Obama's yearly incrementing of the CAFE rules is excellent, and demonstrates a commitment to actually getting things done rather than making promises. With luck, this action will pressure the rest of the candidates to match Obama's plan, and CAFE regs will go up no matter who we elect next.

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Hmmm:

"a rate that the National Academy of Sciences has determined is possible without changes in vehicle weight, safety or performance."

Much of what I read here on ABG mentions the effect improved fuel efficiency can have on the three factors listed above. I find it hard to believe a 4% annual improvement can be maintained without, at minimum, making vehicles lighter. I'll even avoid the safety and performance discussion, for the moment.

Does anyone have further info on the cited National Academy of Sciences documentation?

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Phil, I think this might be it.

"A variety of technologies to improve fuel economy are available for cars and light trucks. Many have been developed and are being implemented in Europe and Japan where fuel prices are much higher than here. Variable Valve Lift and Timing can reduce fuel consumption by 3-8%. Continuously variable transmissions can achieve another 4-8%."

http://www7.nationalacademies.org/ocga/testimony/Fuel_Economy_Standards.asp

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40 mpg?

Looks like we'll all be driving 1L turbo-diesels

And there are many "real costs" in expanding the use of ethanol a fuel.

E85 from corn is simply not a sustainable fuel source.

Cellulosic ethanol appears to be stuck in the lab (if you thought ethanol from corn was expensive...)

And what crop will be grown on hundreds of thousands of acres as a feedstock for cellulosic ethanol?

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Lascelles -

Yes, I'm familiar with those technologies - and they might get us 4% a year for a few years (though, as has been discussed elsewhere on ABG, parasitic losses in current CVT designs may mean they aren't as effective as once hoped).

But most of this discussion is pushing out 10+ years. I find it hard to believe we'll get to CAFE standards in the 40 mpg region with *NO CHANGE* in current US vehicle weight and performance (safety is an ever-moving target; I'll leave it out for now).

Does anyone here really believe such incremental improvements will allow us to drive 5000+ pound SUVs that can do 0-6 in under 8 seconds - and still get 40 mpg? Remember: They claim NO CHANGE in weight or performance.

Is it just me? I'm having a hard time buying into this.

I'm all for more efficient vehicles. But I also believe the US will someday have a rude awakening when it comes to our expectations. A quick look a typical European vehicles should be our wake-up call. Politicians who pretend significant problems can be solved without significant change or sacrifice are probably more interested in winning the next election than providing true leadership.

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Phil, Actually, they might not be able to just make smaller cars. I was going to get into this when the energy bill went back before the senate Sept but there are really big changes in the new cafe. Car companies that make smaller cars won't have an advantage. It will account for that. They look at class and other things. That's why you are starting to see these caveats because there are real doubts about the changes being talked about.

I think they know in some cases they are reaching for some major advances. It's almost a way to sneak in electric cars and hybrids by using CAFE. Without any kind of California like mandate for zero emission cars. That's the secret here. Someone wrote here, GM could sell a few Volts and not change CAFE at all and comply. That's the way I see it. Also, who knows what can happen in 10 years?

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Laschelles - Yes, this is one of the issues with the "Average" portion of CAFE.

Larger vehicles do need careful consideration. I have 3 kids still in car seats, so I know that a small vehicle doesn't meet everyone's needs. Still, the US doesn't get the selection of interesting, efficient, quality small cars found many other places in the world. Hopefully, some of the current efforts will result in more options for efficient driving in the future.

Where's my hybrid diesel minivan?

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Bill (commment #4),

A 2l turbo-diesel, installed in the 2008 Volkswagen Jetta Sportwagen, is expected to achieve 40mpg city, 60mpg highway, and is a very reasonable sized car. There is clearly no need to cut that engine in half, since it already way ahead of the target. And VW hasn't even put in some of the mild-hybrid features that BMW has worked out, like not dirving the alternator all the time and stopping the engine when it doesn't need to run.

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Interesting. Is he going to start implementing this before or after he invades Pakistan?

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Should Congress's energy bill already be completed by the time they get into office should they get elected anyway? It sounds as if this could be a lot of posturing so they can say they were for stricter standards later that they know can't be approved. Additionally, if these standards were achievable why aren't the progressives in Congress already calling for them now?

When there's two sides in Congress each usually starts with the most extreme so that compromise is reached in the middle. The 35 from the liberal side is already suppose to hurt manufacturers but car manufacturers know that change has to come so they will find something they can support too and a compromise will be worked out. I do some work with the AAM and thats how I understand this process to work.

The best idea I've heard so far is to increase CAFE standards to the highest point that won't have the negative effects of plans that don't take into consideration auto workers and the state of the current auto industry.

Also, I'm not really keen on relying on technology that isn't invented yet either - having standards that separates cars and trucks sounds like the smarter move.

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Have these idiot candidates forgotten that it first has to go through Congress?? That is something out of their control.

I say politicians spend more time on golf courses instead of trying to control the business world.

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If he gets to be vice-president under hillary, how quickly will he call up Jeri Ryan and thank her for not engaging in a certain oral activity with her husband, which came out from sealed child custody papers, to spite the senate run of ex-husban Jack Ryan, which left no viable republican candidate to run against Obama.

Illinois has 10% ethanol and the AKI has not gone up. (how about 90 mid-grade and 93 premium)
So what ADM gives (ethanol has 100+ AKI), Exxon takes away (via cheaping out using a less refined grade of gasoline)

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Frank78, Actually the president can change CAFE without Congress. It's under debate because Bush says he does not have the power but he has the power to change at least some types of CAFE without congress. I think it's light trucks or something.

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35mpg standard + by 2016 = impossible.

that would be WAY to expensive for car makers.

but seriously.....people want better mpg....ans so the politicians are simply telling you what you want to hear.....it wont happen.

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Let's not forget that all those ethanol-based jobs in the midwest are propped up by generous subsidies and a hefty protectionist tariff against imports. As an economic strategy, corn ethanol is highly questionable. Then again, so is protecting oil interests by sending the marines.

Let's also not forget that car makers managed to subvert the spirit of CAFE by getting Congress to pass the E85 amendment. Every flex-fuel vehicle produced actually reduces real-world fleet average fuel economy, because the rules allow them to guzzle more gas without falling foul of CAFE or the gas guzzler law.

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this is all well and good but what are they doing NOW? They are all elected officials. I don't exactly see them running through the halls of congress pushing their fellow legislators to enact this kind of legislation now.

makes me think they are just pandering to the publics desires all the while knowing full well that they'll never get these kinds of regualtions in place.

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if he get elected will he ride in one of these 40+ MPG cars and give up the bullit proof limo????.

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I'm sure he'll ride in a hybrid, just like Harry Reid does...

Honestly, this type of unrealistic posturing should be exposed for what it is and this "anything is possible if you wish hard enough" attitude means they will most likely be an ineffective leader. This country needs CAFE standards that are realistic and legislation that can actually get passed.

CAFE legislation will get passed before the 08 election by Congress meaning all of this will be moot - it won't matter what a President can do if its a dead issue and we've moved on. We should be focusing on the House now. We should be focused on people like Pelosi who are pulling CAFE standards off the table because she doesn't want Democrats fighting with each other on TV.

We have an opportunity because the auto industry is actually coming to the table right now and is supporting a raise in CAFE standards - and that is something we should consider and grasp. The reasonable standards they are agreeing to now are a million times better than the political posturing of any of these wannabe presidents.

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