Reader Essay: The Origins of Power - cellulosic ethanol vs. solar
Filed under: Emerging Technologies, Ethanol, Solar, AutoblogGreen Exclusive
Editor's Note: John Beams, a student in Michigan with no professional connections in the green car industry, is an AutoblogGreen reader. Recently, he wrote the following essay and asked us if we wanted to publish it. We read it, liked it, and so here ya go. If you've been working on a bit of writing you think your fellow ABG readers would be interested in, go ahead and contact us. We'll see what we can do.It is becoming more widely known that switchgrass [1] is one of the best possible sources for biofuel in the coming years. Primarily because of its incredibly high biomass yield per acre, with the advantages of being a low maintenance perennial crop, tolerance to pests and many climates, and other advantages. [2]
I was curious about how efficient ethanol really was, compared to some alternatives, which led me to research this and derive some figures. If you want to skip the math, my conclusions are at the bottom.
A single acre of switchgrass under research conditions has been shown to produce an average dry biomass yield of 11.5 tons per acre over 6 years, with a record high of 15 tons per acre. With ethanol production as high as 100 gallons per ton using the still-in-development cellulosic conversion process, a good switchgrass crop could produce as many as 1,500 gallons of ethanol fuel per year. [3] Using standard sugar alcohol conversion, sugarcane can produce about 665 gallons per acre, while corn comes in around 400. [4] See here for more corn vs. solar numbers.
The actual commercial yield of per acre of switchgrass is probably closer to 6-8 tons per acre [2], but I will give it the benefit of the doubt, and assume for the purposes of this article that it can average 10 tons per acre when proper cultivars are chosen for the growing conditions. If you wish to be more optimistic, you can multiply any figures I get for switchgrass by 1.5, to get the 15 tons per acre.
Read those numbers, and much more, after the jump
Like any plant, switchgrass requires primarily carbon dioxide, water, and sunlight for its growth. When converted to a liquid fuel then burned, the hydrogen and carbon collected by the plant over its life is re-released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and water, resulting in an overall 'carbon neutral' process. Plants use the energy of the sun to create what we use as fuel (albeit indirectly as cellulose), so biofuel is essentially captured solar power.
(Note: coal, crude oil, natural gas, wind, and hydroelectric power are also captured solar power, but discussion of that is for another article.)
Given:
- 1 acre of switchgrass can produce approximately 1,000 gallons of ethanol per year.
- Ethanol has an energy density of 24 MJ/l, or 90.850 MJ/gallon. [5]
- 1 watt-hour = 3600 joules (joule is the SI unit of energy).
- 1 acre of land is approximately 4046 square meters.
- At noon at the equator on a sunny day, the earth recieves approximately 1000 watt-hours per square meter, and at 40° latitude, that figure changes to about 600. Across the southern half of the USA, the average annual insolation (solar power absorption) [6] is 200 W·h/m², taking into effect the seasons, cloud cover, and night. [7]
- Inexpensive multicrystalline solar cells from 10 years ago are about 18 percent efficient, new three-junction concentrators are about 36 percent efficient. [8]
The average energy a square meter of earth receives across the southern USA: 200 W·h/m² * 3600 = 720,000 J, or 720 kJ/m² 720 kJ/m² * 4046 = 2,913,120 kJ/acre, or 2,913.120 MJ/acre
Since there are 365 * 24 = 8,760 hours in a year, and that is the average insolation per hour, the total insolation for a year would be: 8760 * 2913.120 MJ/acre = 25,518,931.2 MJ/acre, or 25,518.931 GJ/acre
Solar panels at 18 percent efficiency will give us 18 percent of that total in direct electricity: 25,518.931 GJ/acre * 0.18 = 4,593.408 GJ/acre

So:
One acre of switchgrass cellulosic ethanol = 90.850 GJ
One acre of 18 percent efficient solar panels = 4,593.408 GJ
That is over 50 times more energy from the inexpensive solar panels than from the plants. When the price of multijunction solar panels falls, bringing 36 percent efficiency to the masses, it will be over 100 times more energy than we could ever get from ethanol.
Dividing the energy output we get from ethanol by the total solar energy that area receives, then multiplying it by a very generous efficiency of 35 percent for an ethanol-fueled vehicle, we get a sun-to-wheels efficiency of 0.125 percent for ethanol vehicles.
Doing the same for an electric vehicle, with 18 percent efficient solar panels, 80 percent efficient electricity transmission, and 80 percent efficient electric motors, we get a sun-to-wheels efficiency of 11.5 percent.
If you put 36 percent efficient solar cells on your roof, and drove a Tesla Roadster which is 90 percent efficient on average, and has an 86 percent charging efficiency, the total sun-to-wheels efficiency is 27.9 percent.
Conclusions:
- Sun -> switchgrass -> ethanol -> ethanol vehicle's wheels: 0.125 percent efficient.
- Sun -> cheap solar -> sloppy homebuilt electric vehicle's wheels: 11.5 percent efficient.
- Sun -> high-efficiency solar -> Tesla Roadster's wheels: 27.9 percent efficient.
- Why are we trying to grow our energy when we can harvest it directly from the sun.











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 2)
6-25-2007 @ 9:14AM
woodman said...
Great article! This information should be in every newspaper and broadcast on TV so that everyone knows about it. Then maybe we could avoid future Iraq wars.
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6-25-2007 @ 9:43AM
Mulad said...
Yeah, I ran some numbers about a month ago which showed the only thing within firing distance of solar is algae biodiesel, but since the yield levels from that have been called into question lately, I'm not sure how well it would work out in the end. Of course, cellulosic ethanol is probably at about the same stage of development, so I'm not sure how much I trust their numbers either.
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6-25-2007 @ 10:06AM
Damian said...
Excellent article. As woodman said, this article should be posted in all newspapers. I wish John had worked out better the details (cost of growing and harvesting grass, cost of solar panels) since that would have made this article more "publishable".
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6-25-2007 @ 10:38AM
Mike Miller said...
Nice work, we should be looking at these numbers for every decision. I have a couple things to add. If you include the energy required to harvest the crop/refine(cellulose)/distibute the fuel, it would help your case even more. However, if you need to store the solar enegy you will loose ~20% of it to the batteries with current technology, unless you could charge your car during the hours of sunlight. In general, if you use the power where you generate it (i.e. solar with batteries/electric car) you are inherently more efficient than refining/distributing that fuel to gas stations. I am sure it also takes more energy to harvest/refine/distibute the ethanol made from switchgrass or other than it does to build/install a solar panel. I wish we could readily purchase 36% efficient solar panels. I think ~26-27% would be on the higher end of the panels available today. This is all why we need to shift our thinking from this large inefficient energy chain of centralized power (big oil/power plants) to decentralized power (solar, wind, wave energy, etc.). Would not need nearly as much energy (megawatts) if we replaced our existing system with decentralized systems where ever possible.
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6-25-2007 @ 10:49AM
Jimmy said...
How much does it cost to "plant" acres of solar panels ?
How do I store 1.2 GJ of electrical energy (that's 50l of ethanol) in 40Kg of batteries ?
How much does that battery storage cost ?
Photovoltaics watts would be better served displacing coal fired power plants rather than competing with biofuels.
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6-25-2007 @ 11:14AM
Sam Jaffe said...
Good number crunching. However you alienated 80% of the population when you say at the end "money hardly matters". In fact money is the only thing that matters in energy calculations. The green movement has to understand that.
Under present conditions, your point isn't valid even if best case scenarios are factored in to the calculations. Right now it would cost me about $100,000 to put enough solar panels and requisite equipment onto my roof to power the house and car. Let's assume I buy an aftermarket plug-in upgrade to my prius--about $35,000 for the whole car. Like most families, mine has two cars. Thus I've spent $170,000 for the new setup. Subtract $40,000 for the cost of two regular priuses that I would have bought anyway, and $10,000 for the roofing job I would have had to pay for anyway.
That puts me at $120,000 in capital costs. Let's say my family's gas bills equal about $200 a month and our home power bill equals about $100 a month (keep in mind that I still have to buy electricity at night and I still have to use a fossil fuel to heat my house). Thus over a year, my energy costs are $3,600 per year.
Therefore we are talking about a forty year payback period for principal and interest for the whole setup. No bank will ever give a loan for forty years.
The weakness in my argument, of course, is that those prices will drop as the technology improves. But that's not what the ethanol buildout is about. It's about a solution (albeit a costly one environmentally) that's available now.
Like you, I believe that photovoltaics will decline in price and length of lifetime. Like you, I don't see ethanol as a long-term solution.
But when ethanol hits up against the brick walls of economic realities, we won't need government legislation or essays to convince people to stop investing in them. Likewise, when photovoltaics start making economic sense to be adopted on a massive scale, it will happen.
P.S.-Another weakness in your calculation: if you're going to assume that cellulosic switchgrass ethanol is feasible today, then you have to calculate corn ethanol with its cellulosic value also. Thus (based on productivity alone) a corn ethanol plant that also converts the stover into ethanol should get about 1200 gallons of ethanol per year, making it a better choice for farmers to plant than switchgrass.
P.P.S.--Your essential point is a valid one. The long-term future of energy production is cheap photovoltaics, not biofuels. But that's assuming that breakthroughs will be made, new materials will be found and costs will be lowered. I think that's a reasonable bet to make, which is why I invest in photovoltaic companies and wouldn't touch a conventional ethanol plant investment with a ten foot switchgrass branch.
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6-25-2007 @ 11:26AM
Mike Miller said...
"Since there are 365 * 24 = 8,760 hours in a year"
I think there is an error here, the sun only shines at 1000W/m^2 for 6.5 hrs max. in the sunny places
Installed solar costs are currently $7/watt (larger)-$12/watt (smaller), but are expected to decrease by 40-50% in the next 5 years. a 200watt panel is ~15 sq ft, say 20sq ft total system.
so 43,560 sq ft/acre/20 sq ft = 2178 panels or 0.436 MW and $3.05M (at $7/watt). Guaranteed to last 25+ years once installed. Assuming 4hrs of sunlight a day on average all year(california)we have 1.74 MW/dat/acre (or 6.3GJ/day/acre) 637 MW/yr/acre (or 2280 GJ/acre/yr) and 15.9 GW/acre (or 57,000 GJ/acre) for 25 yrs.
It think we not thinking in terms of time for fuel use, but need to for electricity use. Since accumulate the sun energy every day and you drive your car/use appliances every day you do not need to store all of the energy at once.
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6-25-2007 @ 11:34AM
Tim said...
Mike Miller- Right ON! Distributed electricity means Solar PV & wind generators on home rooftops with excess energy stored in batteries in the V2G PHEV and home batteries.
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6-25-2007 @ 11:42AM
Tony Belding said...
Of course, Polywell IEC fusion power plants wouldn't take up much land area at all, and they could produce power on demand, 24/7/365.
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6-25-2007 @ 12:53PM
Mike Miller said...
"That puts me at $120,000 in capital costs. Let's say my family's gas bills equal about $200 a month and our home power bill equals about $100 a month (keep in mind that I still have to buy electricity at night and I still have to use a fossil fuel to heat my house). Thus over a year, my energy costs are $3,600 per year."
The first thing you would do is reduce your electical/energy usage by adding insulation, buying energy efficient appliances, CFLs, etc. Then look into what makes sense. You could use a geothermal heat pump for heating and cooling.
You also need to compare what your bills would have been prior to the prius's, energy conservation, and solar (which may not be the best solution for you). Then you can evaluate the payoff. Albiet, it will take time, but you also will not be paying it to a utility or oil company and you have secured your electrical costs (fixed), for 25+ yrs it will never rise. you can get more loan to home value with an energy efficient mortgage that can go 30 yrs.
The bottom line is we do not pay for the true cost of the energy in the US so we are incredibly wasteful. Until the price replects the true cost we will never see these technologies come to fruition. How much is clear air/water? We pay loads for health care, but do not see that part of that bill is due to pollution caused by coal plants/autos, etc. We pay for bottled water at $8/gallon when we can buy it through an existing system for $.10 per gallon.
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6-25-2007 @ 1:10PM
kballs said...
Even if cellulosic corn ethanol produces more fuel per acre than cellulosic switchgrass, it comes at a higher economic AND environmental cost. You have to put fertilizer and pesticide on corn, and water it regularly. Switchgrass needs no fertilizer or pesticide, and needs a lot less water. This saves money and eliminates the environmental impact.
For those that don't know, we take out way more water out of the great plains aquifer than goes in.
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse/issues/society/ogallala/ogallala.html
We can't continue to grow biofuels (or even food for that matter) with the current practices.
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6-25-2007 @ 2:21PM
J said...
Agree with GreyFlcn
http://www.sandia.gov/news/resources/releases/2004/renew-energy-batt/Stirling.html
Who wants to spend thousands/millions of dollars for solar panels just to maybe break even in the end? The cost to plant one acre of switchgrass is about $100 and to fertilize about $50. Its all about the economics, when solar panels get down to 1~3 dollars a watt production won't be able to keep up.
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6-25-2007 @ 3:14PM
susan.kraemer said...
This is exactly why you should contact your Senator and your Rep TODAY!
Because last weeks Energy Bill VERY narrowly lost a subsidy for EVs and plugin hybrids that is still in the House version. They might put it back IF YOU ASK FOR IT! Democracy is only as good as we make it! Call (202) 224 3121 or www.congress.org
Details of the legislation here in
(ACTION!) To Get 100+ MPG
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/6/24/143611/302
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6-25-2007 @ 3:38PM
Joseph said...
Great essay! It's not perfect, but it's just about right! I hope to see other essays from you.
Now to attack other people commenting...
Mike said,
"Since there are 365 * 24 = 8,760 hours in a year"
I think there is an error here, the sun only shines at 1000W/m^2 for 6.5 hrs max. in the sunny places.
The guy who wrote this article put the average (taking in account night and clouds) w/m^2 which
is about 200w/m^2 according to him.
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6-25-2007 @ 3:40PM
Tim said...
Solar Stirling Engines - Solve Energy Needs 3x more efficient than PV. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fi0Y0Kr-_KI (Excellent Report)
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6-25-2007 @ 3:50PM
OhmExcited said...
The difference is that ethanol can power existing vehicles with no or relatively small modifications. Electric vehicle battery packs alone cost significantly more than what most people are willing to pay for a vehicle, and you have the remaining challenges of range and recharge time. No viable electric vehicle has been designed to replace heavy cars and trucks, which currently consume a large portion of the oil supply. Electric vehicles will become common when businesses doggedly pursue innovation, lower prices, and listen to what their customers actually want. It won't happen as a result of preaching from above.
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6-25-2007 @ 4:00PM
Bill said...
The big problem for celluosic ethanol is that right now it is not even cost-competitive with ethanol from corn.
The enzymes required to break down the cellulose are just too expensive - try and get a current production cost out of companies that want to make cellulosic ethanol - their press releases usually talk about projected costs at least a couple of years from now.
Expect to see lobbyists inserting tax breaks for cellulosic ethanol even greater than for corn ethanol in the next energy bill.
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6-25-2007 @ 4:47PM
Jason Jungreis said...
I appreciate the article, which works to quantify a fairly obvious observation: purpose-built devices (here, solar energy collectors) are more efficient than non-purpose-built devices (here, plants). But for a complete analysis, raw energy production is not the end as 3 factors must be considered: 1. producer capital cost; 2. user capital cost; 3. secondary impact.
Producer capital cost includes land use, system creation, and infrastructure. Re land use, non-algae biomass requires the use of arable (if sometimes marginal) land, while solar may be placed in non-arable land - advantage, solar. System creation in very labor intensive for both, but more so for solar: on the other hand, while droughts will diminish biomass, regular natural events (major storms, etc.) will destroy solar - advantage, biomass. Re infrastructure, we would need biomass refineries but have existing liquid fuel distribution, while for solar we would need greatly improved grids - advantage, neither.
User capital cost is simpler to analyze: for biomass we use existing and improving vehicles, but for solar/electrical there are no sufficient stores of known battery raw materials (lead, nickel, lithium, zinc) to provide for hundreds of millions of battery-powered cars, and electrolysis-hydrogen-fuel cells would be tremendously expensive - huge advantage, biomass.
As for secondary impact, regarding biomass consider the use of arable land, water usage if irrigation is necessary, the disruption of ecosystems, and the production of oxygen, while for solar consider the disruption of ecosystems, the need for metal raw materials, and the perfectly carbon-neutral nature - advantage, neither.
In sum, both biomass and solar would require a great deal and commitment and capital, but for solar the deal-breaker is the lack of batteries. (While I have long been an advocate of flywheels, they would work wonderfully in hybrid-electric vehicles for power storage but they are not sufficient for energy storage.) Therefore, biomass cellulosic ethanol (switchgrass, poplar, whatever grows happily) and algae biodiesel, to be run in efficient hybrid-electric vehicles, is the way to go unless/until there is a heretofore unknown remarkable breakthrough in portable electrical energy storage.
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6-25-2007 @ 5:19PM
John Beams said...
Thank you all for your comments and insights! I do plan on writing further essays, which will hopefully be a little more mathematically simple and take costs into account, as well as other sources, storage losses, and the like.
And yes, there's a reason I compared 'cutting edge' technologies, neither of which are perfectly feasible today - we have to be looking ahead. I'm assuming batteries will get better (high volume hydrogen production is a possibility), and that cellulosic ethanol will become widely available.
Again, thank you, I'll write some more. The encouragement is great!
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6-25-2007 @ 8:16PM
GreyFlcn said...
Actually when it comes to cost effective solar, look no further than solar thermal.
It has a cost competative with Coal, the potential for thermal storage, and operates at about 35% effeciency.
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