Filed under: Etc., Green Culture, Manufacturing/Plants
Doctoral dissertation estimates 'peak oil' between 2008 & 2018
A doctoral dissertation by Fredrik Robelius of the Uppsala University in Sweden contends that global oil production will reach its peak yield as early as next year before falling into decline. The thesis, which attempts to estimate the largest oil fields' future production, is based on Robelius's investigation of historical oil production, new oil field discovery and global reserves. The world's largest, or giant, oil fields number less than one percent of all fields but account for over 60 percent of global production.
Analysis: Robelius verified that the decline in reserves of a field is constant at an annual rate of diminution of around six to sixteen percent. His best case scenario - peak oil in 2018. If declining oil reserves push up fuel prices and rising prices drive purchases of fuel efficient vehicles, the day of the hybrids may be just around the corner.
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[Source: PhysOrg.com]
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
Howard Lee Harkness 7:19PM (3/31/2007)
If you start with faulty assumptions, you get faulty results, even if you are a doctoral candidate. He apparently never heard of tar sands, or the recent announcement of technology that can extract the oil from tar sand for less than the current price of oil from OPEC wells.
Peak Oil is at least 40 years away. This may be bad news for 'greenies', but I don't think that Peak Oil should be the main driving motivation for going to sustainable fuels.
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Ian 10:05PM (3/31/2007)
Every 4th car on the road these days is a Toyota Prius. May local YMCA mandates the soccer Moms turn off their car engines while picking up their kids. I suspect this effect will soon be seen.
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rg 1:27AM (4/01/2007)
The first time someone predicted peak oil, they predicted it would be in the 1950's. then someone came along with their new study that said the 70's, then the 90's, the 2000+, etc... The date keeps getting pushed back farther and farther. We keep finding new oil reserves and keep getting more efficient. At the same time we keep thinking of new alternatives. We will NEVER run out of oil. You can take that one to the bank because it's 100% accurate.
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Chris M 2:56AM (4/01/2007)
Sorry, "rg", but you are wrong. The American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert made a prediction in 1956 that oil production in the continental US would peak sometime around 1965 to 1970, and it DID peak in 1970. In spite of increased demand, rising prices and extensive drilling, US oil production is well below the 1970 level, and dropping.
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
The prediction was not made by wild guesswork, but by records of careful observations and measurements of over a half century of oil well drilling and pumping.
The newest predictions are also made from detailed records of worldwide oil production. Could the calculations be off by a few years? Possibly, but the worldwide peak will happen, if it hasn't already.
Are there other sources of fuel? Certainly, and we will have to switch over to using them when oil production declines. That does not invalidate the "Peak Oil" prediction, which only covers oil pumped from the ground, and does not cover production of non-petroleum fuels. (BTW, there are peak predictions for various dates for all the other fossil fuels, too)
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Der Alte 5:14AM (4/01/2007)
Whatever the prediction is, oil will peak when it peaks. Its not like the stuff is a renewable resource. Will we ever run out? Likely not. It will just become more expensive that's all. Eventually its price will become so high that its economic uses will become more and more limited. Like all resources, its a matter of supply and demand. If there ever is a genuine shortage of oil....for whatever reason, it will be reflected in the price we pay for it. As oil becomes more expensive, the alternatives will become cheaper in comparison.
The market will determine what the proper price of oil should be and whomever can afford it will be the ones to get it. All this speculation and controversy over peak is really a moot point. The people who pump it or extract it know how much is there and know how much it costs to refine. All you need to do is look at the pump price to tell when peak oil has finally arrived. Right now oil is still cheap and plentiful. People who can afford it will consume it with unquenching thirst until it is too expensive to do so. Nothing is going to stop that.
So where does the environment figure into this? Its a nice idea that peak oil would arrive just at the same time as we have to get serious about global warming. I don't believe in the tooth fairy however. The vast majority of the world does not take global warming seriously. Of those who do claim to take it seriously, most are poseurs and pay the subject only lip service. Most people either think its blown out of proportion or an outright lie. Human nature is such that people will not change their actions until the evidence of the negative consequences as to what they are doing is right in their face. Given what we've heard about global warming, it will be too late to reverse its effects by then.
So, are we screwed? Maybe. Humanity has been screwed before and lived to tell about it. The only constant about world history is the adage...adapt or die. We'll likely have to learn to adapt to a warmer world. If we don't we'll have a tough time as a species. Then again, the scientist keep harping about how there are too many people in the world any ways.
The bottom line. Joe and Jane Six-Pack aren't going to ditch their SUV until they figure gas it too expensive to run it. They're not going to worry about global warming until they see its effects. Anybody who thinks anything will substantially change before that is just fooling themselves. Should the research stop? By no means. Somebody stands to make a crap load of cash if the doomsayers are right.
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Geoff 7:22PM (4/01/2007)
HLH, have you bothered to actually read the study? I thought not, it clearly takes into account the tar sands. Anyway, it's all about the actual supply rate of cheap oil, not really the amount left. Even if the tar sands come on line, at a massive capital investment cost, it'll perhaps be the equivalent of one giant oil field in terms of actual rate of supply. That's not going to forestall peak oil very long. Of course more capital can be put in to increase the rate of supply, but that will come with an associated increase in cost at the pump. The study looks pretty good at a first glance over it. Perhaps you should read it?
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