USDA: Biofuel use in U.S. will see spike in next few years, then drop
Filed under: Biodiesel, Ethanol, Legislation and Policy
The USDA has released its estimate on how biofuels fit into the U.S. long-term energy and crop sectors. Cattle Network has lifted the biofuel-specific parts of the report (or you can download the PDF here).The upshot of the USDA's overview is that biofuel use in America will continue to grow, especially over the next two-three years. After 2010, ethanol growth will be "more moderate," and will make up eight percent of the annual gasoline use in the U.S. by 2012. Yes, this ethanol is expected to be mostly corn-based, which will drive up corn prices and increase corn acreage. Because ethanol demand is inelastic (unresponsive to price changes), the USDA says that, "increased price variability and market volatility are likely."
Biodiesel, on the other hand, will peak even earlier: this year or next. In 2009-2010, slower growth is projected, and things level off after 2010. The USDA projects a high of 700 million gallons of biodiesel a year, less than two percent of total highway diesel fuel.
Details more germane to cattle farming (e.g., corn for feed) are available at the Read link.
[Source: USDA, Cattle Network]
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Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
2-20-2007 @ 1:06PM
Karkus said...
It's nice to see some numbers, and they show that biofuels probably will not displace a huge amount of petroleum imports anytime soon (but every little bit helps). We still need conservation and improved fuel economy.
Another thing it should make people realize is that all of the hoopla about E85 cars and people trying to run B100, for example, is not the way to go. It shows that we can realistically expect E5 or E10 to become standard. This is better for emissions than a few people doing E85 and everyone else straight gasoline (plus it requires fewer pumps and less infrastructure). The same applies to biodiesel. It would be much better for emmissions if everyone used B2 or B5, instead of a few people with B20 or B100.
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2-21-2007 @ 7:44AM
da.cowboy bob said...
When will uninformed people realise that the bio and ethanol "revolution" is based on false assumptions. The real answer is electric, regenerated from plug-ins derived from natural sources such as hydro, and wind. Burning anything is simply not "Green", period. Oh, by the way, assume gasoline as baseline at the established BTU output of 121000 per gallon. Gasohol,(15%ethanol) comes in at 115000 BTU's per gallon, and E-85 comes in at 90000 BTU's per gallon. Ergo- E-85 is only 75% as efficient as gasoline. Translation- A car getting 30MPG on gasoline will get only 22.5MPG on E-85. So, you'll use much more fuel, and it will also cost more. This is Green? The science for this fuel output is real, but politics have made the facts obscure.
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2-21-2007 @ 10:52AM
Jimmy said...
One should note this study is focused exclusively on ethanol and biodiesel produced from current major crops; corn and soybeans. In-order to replace petroleum we will need to diversify the biofuel feed-stocks.
Economics will help in the diversification. There is already tremendous commercial interest in new sources for ethanol and biodiesel. Corn and soybean are used as feed-stocks because they were cheap and abundant, not because they are best suited for biofuel production. New feed-stocks are already happening with biodiesel in response to increases in soy prices.
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