Toyota executive engineer sees rising hybrid battery prices, lithium batteries in 10 years

The end of the line for driving down the price of hybrid batteries with large order size is here, Toyota Motor executive engineer Dave Hermance said during a recent visit to the Toyota plant in Georgetown, Kentucky. The economy of scale strategy has run out on nickel-based batteries, he said, but new technology – batteries made using lithium ion – are coming. Trouble is, this won't be for a few more years: three for the first hybrids to use them (like this Smart EV prototype), ten until they all do, is Hermance's prediction. In the meantime, interest in hybrid cars is expected to continue to rise. Buyers of Toyota's hybrids will be hit with a price increase from the costlier batteries, and will also miss out on the highest Federal tax credits available, because so many Toyota hybrids have been sold. Once lithium batteries are more regularly available, Hermance said, Toyota would try the same economy of scale tactics to drive those prices down.
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[Source: Courier-Journal / Robert Schoenberger via Mixed Power]











Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
11-14-2006 @ 12:06PM
Peter said...
The Tesla already uses lithium ion batteries!
http://www.teslamotors.com/performance/charging_and_batteries.php
Reply
11-15-2006 @ 11:30AM
sp said...
not only that, but question is reliability as current lithium ion batteries cant last 10-15 years, which might not be the problem with very expensive sports car but is very much an problem for an Toyota.
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11-15-2006 @ 12:07PM
Peter said...
Schneegz, my point was simply that lithium ion batteries are ready now. It will not take 3 years to see them on the road as this Toyota exec quoted. If Toyota does start to push the envelope on Li-Ion mass production, then the price of cars like the Tesla will go down as well. Toyota will benefit because Tesla has blazed the trail on technology and performance, and Tesla will benefit because Toyota will put some high volume muscle behind battery production.
As for reliability, the same page I linked to in my first post discusses how the Tesla's batteries are expected to last over 100,000 miles. Consider this: most internal combustion engine cars are designed with a life span of 10 years in mind anyway.
I would much rather replace a battery pack every 100k than replace engine oil, accessory belts, timing belts, spark plugs, air filters, fuel filters, fuel pumps, exhaust, etc all throughout a gasoline powered car's life. Not to mention the savings on the fuel itself.
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11-15-2006 @ 2:06PM
Mike said...
Peter:
In the automotive business, it takes 3-4 years before a new item can be put in a production vehicle. Any new technology like the Lithium Ion batteries needs to be tested by Toyota (temperature, vibration, durability, warranty, etc.), approved by their engineers, a plant will need to be built by an approved supplier, etc. Just because the technology is ready (according to a press release) today does not mean you can instantly add it to a vehicle. The reason that today’s vehicles are so reliable is the testing and engineering that go into them before they hit the streets.
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11-19-2006 @ 4:45PM
Schneegz said...
"The Tesla already uses lithium ion batteries!"
Yes, it does. It also costs $100,000. That cost is due in part to the higher cost of Li-ion batteries when compared to Ni-M-H batteries. As battery manufacturing technology improves, Li-ion batteries will become less expensive and trickle down to less expensive vehicles.
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2-10-2008 @ 6:55PM
tony said...
The main reason Lithium batteries are so expensive has to due with the fact that Lithium is a scarce resource. More scarce than oil. There is not enough Lithium in the world to sustain Lithium based cars. See this link:
http://www.evworld.com/blogs/index.cfm?page=blogentry&authorid=12&blogid=431&archive=1
Henry Kissinger said:
"And here's the real irony, folks. Based on a document now in my possession, it would appear that by our promoting the development of electric cars and hybrids powered by lithium ion batteries, we could be trading one scarce resource - oil - for an even more scarce one, lithium carbonate/chloride, the mineral from which lithium is processed; and the resource wars of the future could shift from the Middle East to the high Andean Mountains of Chile, Bolivia and Argentina. But that's a topic for another day."
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